Vineburg, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

071
FXUS66 KMTR 060911
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
211 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

Warm and dry conditions through Friday, unsettled weather returns
over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

Order has been restored with Wind Advisory criteria no longer being
met across the region. The upper-level pattern shows a reinforcing
trough in the Great Basin nudging the cut-off low over the Southwest
to the east. As a result, offshore flow will likely linger in the
higher terrain today even as surface pressure gradients weaken.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for areas away
from the coast with Minor HeatRisk to show for it. The marine layer
has begun to reestablish itself with a 600 foot observation coming
in on the Fort Ord Profiler. Satellite shows a southerly surge
feeding into Monterey Bay; as a result, expect low clouds and
visibilities in the region through the morning.

NWS Minor HeatRisk:

- Heat of this type is tolerated by most; however there is a minor
  risk for extremely heat-sensitive groups to experience negative
  heat-related health effects.

- For those at risk, actions that can be taken: increase
  hydration, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade when
  the sun is strongest, and open windows at night and use fans to
  bring cooler air inside buildings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

Global ensemble clusters are in good agreement through Friday with
upper-level ridging building across the West. Friday is forecast to
be the warmest day of the week with temperatures up to 20 degrees
above average with moderate HeatRisk in the Southern Salinas Valley
and minor HeatRisk elsewhere. Subsidence aloft will allow for a
shallow marine layer to bring low clouds and visibilities to coastal
areas during this time. Uncertainty creeps in Saturday when global
ensemble clusters diverge on whether the upper-level ridge continues
to build in for one last day or if heights begin to fall. More
specifically, the uncertainty can be boiled down to the amplitude
and strength of the upper-level trough. A longer and stronger
solution will bring more impacts to the region than a shorter and
weaker solution. The aforementioned uncertainty will be compounded
into the timing, but nonetheless expect a noticeable change in
sensible weather over the weekend with cool and windy conditions,
an increase in cloud cover, and a slight chance for rain in the
North Bay.

NWS Moderate HeatRisk:

- Heat of this type is tolerated by many; however there is a moderate
  risk for members of heat-sensitive groups to experience
  negative heat-related health effects, including heat illness.
  Some risk for the general population who are exposed to the sun
  for longer periods of time. For those without air conditioning,
  living spaces can become uncomfortable during the afternoon and
  evening, but fans and leaving windows open at night will help.

- For those at risk, actions that can be taken: reduce time in the
  sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated, stay in a
  cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities
  to cooler times of the day, for those without a/c, use fans to
  keep air moving and open windows at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025

Mostly VFR conditions continue into the night with the exception of
HAF which will have reduced visibilities from sea spray (noted as
HZ). Breezy surface winds linger into the evening before reducing
with some LLWS concerns at STS as aloft stay strong and and
northeasterly. These LLWS concerns ease into the late night as
surface winds aloft reduce. Low clouds creep up the Big Sur Coast
and fill (IFR) around the Monterey Bay into Tuesday morning. These
clouds will also push their way up to HAF into the early morning.
Winds build into the late morning on Tuesday, with VFR returning to
all but HAF. CIGs will slowly move inland into the evening with
the Monterey Bay terminals seeing IFR CIGS in the night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay moderate
through most of the night and then become light and variable into
early Tuesday. West winds build again into Tuesday afternoon, but
stay mostly moderate. There is some model disagreement of whether
or not the southerly surge patter will introduce more
southwesterly winds from the San Mateo coast, but confidence in
this scenario is low. Regardless, winds look to turn light and
variable into Tuesday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the late night. Winds stay
light and variable through the night. A southerly surge of IFR-
level clouds will move up from the Big Sur Coast and flow around
and fill over the Monterey Bay in the late night. Cloud cover
looks to lift to MVFR levels in the mid morning, but won`t exit
from the terminals until more moderate winds arrive into Tuesday
afternoon. IFR CIGS return into the night as winds reduce.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025

Breezy to gusty winds linger in the northern outer waters as winds
elsewhere ease. Seas will also reduce into the night with a
moderate northwest swell expected through the week. Breezier winds
build again in the later work week and look to last through the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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